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CLIMATE AND WATER OUTLOOK FOR THE PNW - Spring 2001 DROUGHT UPDATE
Photo Credit: Gilbert W. Arias/Seattle Post-Intelligencer. Reprinted with permission.
April 10, 2001
Portland Building
1120 SW 5th Ave
2nd floor auditorium
Sponsored by
University of Washington
Climate Impacts Group
and
Portland Water Bureau
Background: Precipitation over most of the Pacific Northwest during fall and winter 2000-2001 has been much below normal. In contrast to a recent severe Pacific Northwest drought in 1992, which was caused primarily by abnormally warm temperatures and below normal low elevation snowpacks (but near normal precipitation), the currently evolving drought is associated with near normal temperatures, but much below normal precipitation. This follows on an exceptionally dry summer in 2000, which resulted in low soil moisture entering the winter. Hydrologically, the evolving 2001 drought appears to be similar in magnitude to the 1977 drought, which for much of the Pacific Northwest was the drought of record -- except that 1977 followed on the relatively wet winter of 1975-76. The severity of the 2001 drought is further exacerbated by ongoing California power problems, one result of which is that Columbia River reservoirs have been drafted to levels much lower than they were in spring 1977.
The purpose of this workshop is to bring together hydrologists responsible for streamflow forecasting, as well as water and power managers, and water users to exchange information. The workshop will closely follow release of the April 1 snowmelt and streamflow forecasts. The April 1 forecast usually provides the most accurate outlook of spring and summer Columbia basin flows, coming near the time of maximum high elevation snow accumulation. The range of forecasts for the upcoming spring and summer will be reviewed, as will operational options and alternatives for mitigating drought effects. Representatives of various user groups have been invited to comment on the situation. This workshop should be of interest to all water managers and other parties likely to be affected by the Columbia River drought.
Agenda
8:30 AM Welcome and Background (Dennis Lettenmaier, UW)
8:45 AM Climate Outlook for 2001 and 2002 (Ed O'Lenic, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction)
9:10 AM NRCS Snowmelt Forecast for WY 2001 (Phil Pasteris, NRCS)
link to presentation (See Reports section at the bottom of the linked page)
9:35 AM RFC Streamflow Forecast for WY 2001 (Harold Opitz, NWSRFC)
10:00 AM UW Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts for WY 2001 and 2002 (Andy Wood and Alan Hamlet, University of Washington)
10:25-10:50 AM Break
10:50 AM Power Operations Implications and Projections (John Fazio, NWPPC)
11:15 AM Planning for Reservoir Operation in a Low Water Year (Cynthia Henriksen, USCOE)
11:40 AM Basinwide Water Management and Fisheries Implications (Paul Wagner, NMFS)
12:05 - 1:15 Lunch
1:15 PM Water Management Implications for the Yakima River Basin (Lance Vail, Pacific Northwest National Labs)
1:40 PM Implications for the Upper Snake (Don Reading, Ben Johnson Associates)
2:05 PM Fish and Wildlife Issues (Jim Nielsen, Washington State Department of Fish and Wildlife)
2:30 PM Drought Management Issues for the Portland Water Supply (Lorna Stickel, Portland Water Bureau)
2:55-3:20 PM Break
3:20 PM Drought Planning for the Portland Water System and other West Side Water Providers (Rick Palmer and Margaret Hahn, University of Washington)
3:45 PM The Long Term View (Ed Miles, University of Washington)
4:10 PM Wrapup, Future Updates
4:30 PM Adjourn
Registration: There is no fee for attending, but we do request advance registration. Lunch will be provided for those who register by 4/6. Please fill in the form and return by email to Adrienne Karpov (karpov@u.washington.edu) or fax to 206-616-5775.
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